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Manifesting can only shift probabilities so far. It can make an improbable event more likely, but it won’t actually make it likely, just somewhat less improbable.
That’s a common view, I don’t think I’m bursting anyone’s bubble with that. But, why can manifesting only shift probabilities so far? Why that far, and not farther?
I don’t have an answer, only a question. But I know two answers that aren’t really answers:
- More powerful mages get bigger probability shifts. Yes, they do. But why? What about them makes them “more powerful,” and why are those differences associated with larger shifts?
- Probability is elastic, like a rubber band. Maybe. I’d say that probability is a way of thinking about uncertainty, not an actual object itself. But either way, why does probability behave this way?
Why does this matter? By knowing the underlying mechanism, and knowing what limits it, we can build better techniques that overcome those limits. A good answer will suggest ways to overcome those limits, and those ways will work. That’s how I can tell a good answer from a curiosity stopper.
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